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在碳中和与产业园区智能化转型的背景下，高新产业园区低碳化设计是助力行业碳中和的重点之一，探究其空间形态与碳排放之间的关系十分重要。本文以济南市为例，通过探究空间形态对寒冷地区高新产业园区低碳化设计的影响，提出了设计策略建议。研究中将模拟与数据驱动的方法结合，使用XGBoost模型分别构建了高新产业园区运营阶段碳排放和光伏发电潜力预测模型，结合SHAP解释技术，探究城市密度、空间布局、建筑单体3个维度空间特征对高新产业园区碳排放的影响和贡献，解析产业园空间形态与运营阶段碳排放、光伏发电潜力间的关联，最终提出城市尺度、街区尺度、建筑尺度3个层次的设计策略建议，为寒冷地区产业园低碳化设计提供依据，为多维度低碳设计理论提供量化支撑。
Abstract：Against the backdrop of carbon neutrality and the intelligent transformation of industrial parks, the low-carbon design of high-tech industrial parks serves as a key focus for advancing the industry's carbon neutrality goals, wherein exploring the relationship between spatial form and carbon emissions is of great significance. By investigating the impact of spatial form on the low-carbon design of high-tech industrial parks in cold regions, this paper proposes relevant design strategy recommendations. The study combines simulation-based and data-driven methods, and employs the XGBoost model to separately construct a carbon emission prediction model and a photovoltaic power generation potential prediction model for the operation phase of high-tech industrial parks. Integrating the SHAP interpretation technique, it explores the impacts and contributions of spatial characteristics from three dimensions ± urban density, spatial layout, and individual buildings ± on the carbon emissions of high-tech industrial parks, and analyses the correlations between the spatial form of industrial parks, carbon emissions during the operation phase, and PV power generation potential. Finally, design strategies at three levels(urban scale, block scale, and building scale) are put forward, providing a basis for the low-carbon design of industrial parks in cold regions.
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基本信息:
DOI：10.16414/j.wa.2026.04.012
中图分类号:TU984.13;X322
引用信息:
[1]郑斐,王维昊,王月涛,等.基于XGBoost-SHAP模型的寒冷地区高新产业园区低碳化设计策略研究：以济南市为例[J].世界建筑,2026,No.429(04):24-32.DOI:10.16414/j.wa.2026.04.012.
基金信息:
山东省研究生优质教育教学资源项目项目编号：SDYAL2024087; 山东建筑大学博士科研基金项目编号：X22055Z
2026-04-15
2026-04-15